This is my understanding of the last 4 seasons, starting with the most recent developments, and how they are connected to the overall story arc:
P5 tasked Ana Espinoza to kidnap Will in order to draw Sydney out of her maternity leave. As predicted, Sydney went after Will and a heavy rival battle commenced. Ana was able to cut Sydney in the arm and P5 gofers were able to profile her DNA. In order to save Will from a head explosion, Sydney had to produce page 47 of the Rambaldi manuscript. When she did so, she was drenched in some sort of red goop that was then used to genetically manipulate Ana into a Sydney double.
According to the Rambaldi prophecy on page 47:
“This woman here depicted will possess unseen marks. Signs that she will be the one to bring forth my works. Bind them with fury, a burning anger unless prevented at vulgar cost this woman will render the greatest power unto utter desolation. This woman, without pretense, will have had her effect, never having seen the beauty of my sky behind Mt. Subasio. Perhaps a single glance would have quelled her fire.”
We know that Sydney’s fire has been quelled. Sydney was able to see the sky behind Mt. Subasio- thus I am fairly certain that Sydney is not the Chosen One. Some bloggers have mentioned the Irina stated that the symbol for Rambaldi,
It has not been confirmed that Sydney and Zombie Nadia’s fight in Svogda was the battle spoken about in the prophecy- but, contridictory to Rambaldi's prophecy- both did survive. We have to remember- the fight on the roof was Elena’s endgame, not Rambaldi’s.
The doubling technology was researched and developed by Elena from the writings of Rambaldi. Sloane was indeed working with Elena at the end of season 2- thus how Francie was doubled. We also have to remember that every move the Covenant made in season 3 was ordered by Elena. She sent Sark and Lauren after the Passenger. She sent them to find her in order to get the coordinates of the secret location of the Rambaldi Sphere of Life. Once Sloane found out Nadia/the Passenger was his daughter, he knew he had to protect her from Elena’s endgame. He had to find the Sphere before the Covenant. Luckily Nadia gave the Covenant the wrong coordinates. It is still unclear how much Nadia knows about Rambaldi and the part she plays. Seemingly raised by the Elena- how did Nadia escape her radar? How did she even get into Elena’s hands? Was it truly Bill Vaughn that rescued her?
I found this on a post that Uncle 111 placed on the ABC Boards.
Nadia told Syd that while she was under the influence of the green fluid she had a hallucination."I saw something awful. Sounds and fast images, they went by very quickly, but there was one vision that felt so real...We were both together, scared and upset, holding guns aimed at each other. And I remember my hands were shaking...and I pulled the trigger. Blood was pouring down your chest and I wanted to say I was sorry, but you just looked at me as if you'd been expecting it. As if you knew all along, knew I was going to kill you."
It is highly possible and most likely- that the Sydney that Nadia kills is Ana. Ana would have expected to be killed by the Passenger- especially if they were to do great battle. I can't see that the real Sydney would have expected her sister to kill her. They both have been very adamant about caring about each other and never doing anything to hurt one another. I think this is just another example of the vague context of the prophecy which can easily be filled by Ana.
In season 4, Elena had Irina doubled and framed for the hit on Sydney. Elena needed the real Irina to help her build the Mueller Device over Svogda. Sloane had to protect his daughter from Elena’s endgame- from Elena’s version of Rambaldi’s endgame. Thus, he pretended to be working with Elena at the end of season 4, in order to gain access for the group to shut Elena down. If Elena had accounted for every possible scenario like she stated, is it plausible that she too had a double made of herself? This woman ran the Covenant for several years completely undetected- I can’t imagine she didn’t anticipate that Irina would be freed and that the team would come after her.
All of this wraps back to P5. Some of what we do know about Prophet Five is they were a small, anonymous group affiliated with the US government. They tasked a group of mathematicians (Bill Vaughn), scientists and members of the Army Corp of Engineers (Sloane) to decipher a page of an ancient 15th century text. Once the group deciphered the text, P5 begin killing members of the group. To protect his family- Bill Vaughn changed his name (and his son’s) and began working for the CIA, as did Sloane. Sloane then decided to leave the CIA and joined a group of ex-patriot missionaries called the Alliance of Twelve. After all his missteps, Sloane was finally brought to trial early this season. But the five P5 benefactors were able to bribe someone on the inside and Sloane was set free- only to become a mole in APO for Gordon Dean. Aside, what exactly was Gordon Dean's role in P5 or Ivan Curtis? Were these men merely pawns in the larger game?
Now we know that P5 is run by twelve individuals. For the first time on Wednesday, we saw their faces. For 30 years this group has been operating under the radar, completely anonymous and now, in need of Sydney’s DNA, they are willing to show their faces. Interesting… Sloane didn’t seem to know any of them- but they seemed know him. They stated that it would be his job to “keep your eye on the endgame, like you always have.” If Sloane is Nadia’s real father- perhaps years ago P5 knew that they would need Sloane eventually, to help find Nadia- a key piece to the Rambaldi endgame and that is why he was not killed like the other members of the group.
Some on the blog have asked if the12 men could be the 12 CIA agents that Irina supposedly killed. I don’t think so. P5 was formed well before Irina killed those officers, after Bill Vaughn helped decipher the code. But perhaps, the 12 agents needed Irina to "kill" them, in order to disappear. I do believe there is some significance to the number 12. There are 12 apostles (this ties into the Cardinal- meaning central, fundamental, the key), 12 members of a jury, 12 months in a year, 12 inches in a foot. (PS. Does anyone remember the exact number of Covenant bracelets that Sark and Lauren stole?)
There are so many concrete, and yet so many vague connections between the groups of Alias (SD-6, the Alliance, the Covenant, P5). I would like for us to make a concrete “map” of connections that might help us figure out exactly who this Cardinal is. If the Cardinal is indeed lumped in with P5, then how is Grace involved? The only way for Grace to get a hold of the Cardinal is through Allan Korman- a man in Witness Protection who apparently killed Grace’s wife. This all circles back to Jack and his decision to hire Grace aside from his secret.
Have I missed something? Oh yes- Vaughn’s connection. Seven years ago, on the cusp of Sydney becoming a double agent, Vaughn was approached by Renee Rienne, with information about his father. This is when Vaughn learned his father was a mathematician and that his name had been changed. Vaughn and Renee were able to track down James Lehman, who was also a part of the group who deciphered the P5 page. Vaughn said he became Sydney’s handler because in her statement about SD-6, she mentioned the Mueller Device- which Vaughn had heard about in his research about P5. (There is another connection between SD-6, the Covenant and P5- the Mueller Device). Vaughn and Renee began searching for the P5 manuscript so that James Lehman could once again decipher it. But why? What for? Did P5 attempt to kill Vaughn in order to stop them from finding out what is in the text? Lehman said the manuscript was about amino acids and genetics. Perhaps the text had further information on cloning or doubling and P5 planned to use it to fulfill Rambaldi’s prophecy (hence, doubling Ana as Sydney).
We do know that P5 thinks Vaughn is dead. Even Irina thinks Vaughn is dead. The plot to fake his death came from Jack and Sydney. But even if Vaughn was alive, why would P5 care? He doesn’t have access to the manuscript anymore. Perhaps Vaughn and Renee know more than they are telling. And if Vaughn was killed because of his investigation, then why not Renee? DiSantis and his men had an opportunity to kill Renee when they kidnapped Sydney. Also- remember what DiSantis said to Dean once he was extracted from Renee's care- "The girl's alive. She's working with the CIA and now she goes by the name Renee Rienne." So, we know Renee is not her real name. But what is her role in all of this?
I think we are getting close. I think we have defined and placed the important stuff and all the rest will fall in line in the next couple of episodes. It was so interesting reading all of your comments and theories. I love that you all answer each others questions and help each other to better understand. That is what I intended. I hope you are all having a great time, because I know I am.
So, what have I missed? What do you think of the overview?